Now You're Gonna Believe Us

Manchester City FC 0, Liverpool FC 2 (19 wins, 7 draws, 1 loss, 64 points, 1st place)

The vibes heading into this tie:

Omar comin’ indeed (credit: The Wire)

When the managers for Liverpool and City were shown just prior to kickoff, Arne looked calm and jovial, while Pep looked like he was headed to a colonoscopy without the aid of propofol. Guardiola’s demeanor was understandable, as City has been on unfamiliar terrain this season, and would be without several nailed on starters, so it’s no shock Pep knew his side would have their work cut out for them.

The opening 10 or so minutes basically served for each side to feel one another out, but from the 12’ mark until halftime, Liverpool was clearly the more dangerous team, scoring two goals despite ceding nearly 70% possession to City. It was clear the Reds were comfortable letting City play their game while sitting back and playing defense, striking when the opportunity presented itself.

The first goal came off a clever corner kick that saw Macca deliver the ball to Dom in front of the near post, who one-touched the ball to Mo Salah who was about 10 yards out. Salah laced a shot on target, which deflected off Nathan Aké before finding the back of the City goal to stake the Reds out to an 0-1 lead at 14 minutes.

While Liverpool’s corner kick strategy has left a lot to be desired over the first 20 or so matches, it was clear as you watched them take corners over the past 2 matchweeks that they were cooking something up, and it came to fruition today.

Early in the Wolves tie on the first corner kick, the ball was played to Trent outside the box, who miss-hit the shot, but it was a high quality scoring chance. In the Villa tie a similar set up got Virgil a shot from the half space on the right flank. These both bore some similarity from where Salah took his shot today. This is a nice departure from the routine where everyone in the league kicks inswinging corners and attempts to box in the keeper to prevent him from playing the cross.

This new approach to corners is another sign the manager and his staff are top when it comes to strategy. Slot said they saw something with the way the Citizens defend corners that led to that Salah goal, but they seemed to be tinkering with a similar approach over the past two match weeks.

Photo credit: sport.detik

The second goal also came from something the squad has shown over recent matchweeks: having Dom fill that open area near the half space as sides overcommit to defending the one and only Mohamed Salah.

This is from my match report when the Reds defeated Bournemouth 0-2:

Dom did fine in the battle through the midfield, but one thing the counting stats aren’t going to show is how often he was involved in the build up along the half space on the right side. He would regularly step up into that open space just outside of the penalty area and receive passes.

To be honest, Dom wasn’t all that effective here, but you can see a path forward for him, where he has multiple options for what he wants to do when he receives the ball. One example was in the 87th minute, where he delivered a nice cross to Curtis in front of the Bournemouth goal near the far post. Curtis wasn’t able to get much behind his header, but it was an example of how effective Dom can be as a facilitator from that spot. There’s a shoe here I think is going to eventually drop and it will make the Liverpool attack that much more devastating.

That other shoe officially dropped, as Salah played the ball to Dom at the top of the box, who then took a small touch to his left before lining up his shot. Ederson was dead in the water and didn’t even move, as the ball was already past him and headed into the near corner.

Salah broke another record with that assist, this time for the most PL matches in a single season registering a goal and an assist. Any concern about his game falling off should be tempered by the fact he’s a brilliant facilitator.

After that second goal, for all intents and purposes, the game was done and dusted. Pretty much everything Pep spun up was answered by Arne's charges:

• When City tried pressing very high up the pitch, Liverpool easily worked through the press.

• When City tried anything and everything to get Jérémy Doku isolated on Trent, the Reds shaded Mo and eventually Wataru with a splash of Dom over to help the vice captain.

It says something that Doku, who was the highest rated City player on Sofascore, generated 0.06 expected goals despite being successful on 13 of his 18 dribble attempts and winning nearly 2/3 of his duels. Bernardo Silva and Jack Grealish never made it off the bench. Kevin DeBruyne had a quiet afternoon before being subbed out at 66 minutes.

City proved toothless without the great Erling Haaland, and while Omar Marmoush generated a pinpoint shot that bounced off the far post into the Liverpool goal, he was clearly offside. He never factored into the tie beyond that one flash of pure quality.

This match more closely resembled the ones against Everton and Wolves from an xG standpoint, as the Reds only generated 0.71 xG while scoring two goals. However they were ruthlessly efficient with their chances, exploiting a City defense that is miles off what it was in 2018-19. If you told me before the match that Liverpool would be held well below 1.0 xG I would not feel confident at all about the outcome.

Regardless, with that 2-goal lead, the Reds were happy to sit back and defend over the entirety of the second half. I have no doubt they could have attacked plenty more if necessary, but they were content to throttle it down and lock the game at 0-2. While that much defending in your own end would seem to have the potential to get a bit hairy, Liverpool made it clear they had fine tuned their defensive structure. Thinking back to when things got a bit uncomfortable in the second half against Wolves, it now seems Slot wanted to use that second half as a form of a live exercise to work on improving his side’s defending in their own half.

Mission accomplished.

While this isn’t a vintage City side, putting the sword to them at the Etihad has still proven difficult, as they have only lost twice at home during what has been a forgettable season for them. Also, this Liverpool victory was massive from a vibes perspective as it makes the path to the finish line all the more daunting for Arsenal.

With the win, the Reds expanded their lead atop the Premier League table to 11 points, although Goonerz have a game in hand. Regardless, the most important takeaway is the Reds have proven over the course of their 27 matches to be a 90 point side, while Arsenal is pacing to be a 77 point team.

If Arsenal does something they haven’t done all season - win 12 games in a row - the maximum point total they can achieve is 89. They’ve shown no signs of being capable of that sort of run during their last two matches against Leicester and West Ham. In fact their longest win streak during this PL campaign has been 3 games, accomplished twice.

The truth is Arsenal are miles off the pace required to turn this into a race. And so the Reds stand alone, one hand on the trophy, the other prepared to clutch it and lift it triumphantly once the title is assured.

Game and Player Thoughts

The 4-4-2 Returns

Once again, Liverpool used 4 midfielders and 2 forwards. While the build up against Villa focused on countering and getting Diogo and Mo the ball out wide with lots of open space, today the approach was to deny City comfort in the attacking third, where they spent considerable amounts of time. I’m not sure how often a side with 2/3 possession only generates 0.65 xG, but the Reds proved to be in total command even while ceding loads of possession. There were only brief moments where City looked dangerous, with the most relevant being Marmoush’s goal from an offside position.

Slot looks to be a master tactician who can get his side prepared to get a result, no matter the opponent, with 4 points being dropped as the result of very late scores for Newcastle and Everton. Liverpool dominated Fulham earlier this season while playing the vast majority of the game with 10 men. The Reds are closer to being a 100 point team than an 80 point team. Not by much, mind you, but they are.

The 4-4-2 is the latest tactical masterstroke from Slot and it wouldn’t shock if it became a key element down the home stretch with Darwin getting some stick for his unimpressive work rate in the Villa tie and Diogo being nursed to maintain his health. All this could change of course with Cody Gakpo now being healthy, but it does feel like 4 midfielders provide Slot with more flexibility to change up his approach depending on the opponent, although depth among the mids is a real concern.

Mohamed Salah and Dominik Szoboszlai

Photo credit: Be Soccer

Mo was understandably Man of the Match, but there’s a case to be made for Dom to share that award. He factored into both goals and was a touch offside on a Curtis Jones goal that was waived off. Dom looked as if shot out of a cannon as he received the pass along the right half space before passing to Curtis for a tap in goal, and it seemed obvious in real time that he must have been miles offside. When it went to VAR, he was offside but it was much closer than I realized.

This feels like a combo that is just getting started and is going to be difficult to contain.

Arne Slot

Absolutely no one expected what we’ve seen from Slot. I think a pretty common expectation prior to the season was to maintain a place on the table that would guarantee Champions League play next season, but not much beyond that. Expectations were largely low key.

Slot’s proven he’s capable of all but winning the league with Klopp’s players, and it remains to be seen how Liverpool will fare in the Group of Death in the Champions League, and - a bit further down the line - what the Reds will have in store for this summer. The highest of expectations, which only began to be expressed after the strong start to the season, was that Slot could follow in Jürgen’s footsteps in the same way Bob Paisley followed in Bill Shakly’s, and well, here’s a pretty good sign:

Credit: Michael Reid on Bluesky

Wataru Endō

Photo credit: Liverpool Echo

Seeing Wataru check in at 74’ was highly comforting. While his counting stats were largely forgettable, he’s earned his role as Arne Slot’s James Milner, as he mostly reprised his role on Klopp’s side today as the destroyer of City’s ambitions to progress the ball. He was very active in his own end, basically just gumming up every bit of possession the Citizens was trying to build up in his area, while being an additional nuisance for Doku.

Endō has become the equivalent of a closer in baseball.