Here Comes Your 19th Nervous Breakdown

Aston Villa FC 2, Liverpool FC 2 (18 wins, 7 draws, 1 loss, 61 points, 1st place)

Photo credit: Tribuna

As the emotions swung heavily from elation to trepidation, then back and forth, again and again, I thought to myself how much football managers must hate this sh*t and greatly prefer a nice, quiet game where you go up by a goal early and then get a nice counter late to win by two goals. Control freaks by nature, their emotions almost certainty dwarf what we feel given how much is at stake for them. Today, the second half moved fitfully between confidence the Reds would get that third goal to claim all three points, and deep concern they would concede late and drop them all.

The outcome was in doubt until Alisson’s final goal kick, and with it came a sense of relief at splitting the points given Villa threatened late, but also a feeling that all three points were there for the taking. It was thrilling, it was scary, and the hope after such matches is that it’s a long time before feeling such a strong shift of emotions again, with the understanding this is part of what makes football such a great sport.

You rarely get to walk it in.

In my preview, I mentioned that I thought a draw was a likely outcome, as Villa rarely surrender more than 2 goals and the Reds had not been in good form of late:

Given this tie is at Villa Park, I think there’s a decent chance of a draw. This is due mostly to Villa rarely concedes more than 2 goals and the recent underwhelming form LFC has displayed over the last two ties. It seems the best scoring chances come when you can hit Villa on the counter, and the Reds have been hit or miss with countering, due largely to the desire to hold onto the ball.

With fairly modest expectations going into the tie, I have to say that overall I am pretty sanguine about the outcome. Liverpool doesn’t really have an approach that is geared towards thrashing Villa, partially due to the fact that over the course of 26 weeks, it has become clear that an effective counter is the best way to get at the Villans before they can set their defense; once they are in their defensive posture, they are a tough nut to crack.

All that said, it should be acknowledged that the Reds created plenty of chances to break the deadlock: the advanced stats show Liverpool generated 2.44 xG, greater than the combined xG for the ties against Everton and Wolves. In the preview, I pointed out that the xGA for the season to date flatters Villa, but today was one of those rare matches where the Lions were able to keep the goals conceded below the xGA total.

While LFC was credited with 17 total shots, only 3 of them were on frame.

In my initial draft for the match preview, I mused about how I thought it may make sense to change shape and go with a 4-4-2 given the Reds don’t have a proper striker and were outmanned in the midfield during the second half against Wolves. For these articles, it’s occasionally a battle with myself over how much I want to just understand what the manager is doing and why he’s doing that, and suggesting tactical adjustments, where you run the risk of getting out over your skis and boring the reader to death.

So while I cut that portion from the preview, I was quite pleased to see the lineup for today’s tie, which featured 4 midfielders and 2 forwards:

Overall, I would declare the 4-4-2 a success. While Curtis Jones was nominally a left forward, it was clear Liverpool attempted to build up through Diogo on the left flank and Mo on the right flank, with Curtis playing more centrally as an attacking midfielder.

As far as using 4 midfielder goes, the goals conceded likely had little to do with the formation, other than perhaps Dominik Szoboszlai blocking Alisson Becker during the first goal, but Dom is a nailed on starter, so it’s tough to say the goal was due to anything other than chaos created in the wake of a Villa free kick which fortuitously found its way to Youri Thielemans.

I’m interested in seeing if the 4-4-2 was a one-time thing or if it will continue to be used by Slot.

The Reds had a lot of success early on getting Diogo Jota in positions to threaten the Villa back line during the early stretches of the match - and it was hit or miss - but eventually paid off when Andres Garcia delivered him the ball inside the Villa box. Jota made no mistake with the gift, driving towards net before threading a perfect pass to Mo Salah, who blasted the ball just beneath the crossbar to stake Liverpool FC to a 0-1 lead.

Jota would go on to miss a couple quality scoring chances. At the 39’ mark, Diogo went into the Lions’ penalty box with an open path towards Martínez and his goal, but his shot attempt was miles off, sailing harmlessly across the byline. At 60’ he lined up a shot from the penalty arc, only to see it rattle off the crossbar. This was perhaps the best game to get Jota extended playing time, particularly with the heavy workload Lucho has taken on of late, but Díaz is likely your best option at forward for getting behind the defense and generating scoring chances. This isn’t a criticism, as I support the overall approach to player management, just an acknowledgement of the delicate balance with these sort of decisions.

Mo also got the ball in dangerous areas, but one thing you notice with Salah is he’s no longer the menace to defenders he was during his first 3 years on Merseyside. His take-on success percentages during his first three years was near 60%, and with most of those take-ons, he was headed directly towards goal with ill intentions towards the keeper.

His take-on success percentage dropped to the mid-30s during the previous two seasons under Klopp, but Slot has found a way to make him more successful with take-ons by making them part of a build up, rather than a total focus on playing direct. For the season to date, Salah has a 51.2% success rate, but again, he’s not winning those battles by heading directly towards goal as he did in his late 20s.

Again, this is not a criticism, as Mo’s absurd football IQ has allowed him to evolve his game to the point where he’s still one of the most dominant players the league has seen.

Tugging on Superman’s Cape (Credit: The Athletic on Bluesky)

So once again: this isn’t intended as criticism; it’s said mostly to point out how the Reds weren’t able to take full advantage of what Villa was willing to concede, despite a game plan that gave them plenty of chances to do so. This speaks well of Slot and will be worth revisiting during the off-season.

With all of that out of the way, let’s give credit to Villa, who are well coached and did what it took to split the points and nearly helped themselves to more. The goal scored by Ollie Watkins was pure quality, and Marcus Rashford looked vital once again for stretches along the left flank.

With the draw, the Reds are currently trending towards 89 points for the season, with the next two matches being massive when it comes to their prospects of running away from Goonerz over the final 12 weeks.

Game and Player Thoughts

Set Piece FC

Photo credit: Aston Villa News

I think there needs to be some sort of rule, where if a team’s set piece coach is routinely shown a half dozen times over the course of matches, going absolutely mental along the touchline as his team prepares to line up a set piece, any foul 25-30 yards from the opposing team’s goal that would result in a free kick should be subjected to VAR.

I have no idea who Liverpool’s set piece coach is, and honestly don’t want to know; this entire enterprise of drawing fouls 30 yards out and then having your set piece coach gesticulate like a crazed lunatic prior to the kick is absurd and needs to stop.

Photo credit: Rousing the Kop

Curtis Jones

One of the benefits of going with the 4-4-2 was that Curtis Jones got the start. I know he was technically a ‘left wing’, but as you watched the early build up, you could see it was Jota who was getting service along the left flank. The Scouser played much more centrally and looked more like an attacking midfielder than a left forward.

Jones brought an element of dribbling to the midfield which is otherwise lacking given Ryan Gravenberch tends to sit fairly deep and Dom and Macca are not particularly gifted dribblers. Curtis generated a decent scoring chance at 40’, where he dribbled through two defenders before taking a shot on goal from 17 yards out that went just wide of the far post.

Jones also played a nice pass to Dom along the right flank at the 19’ mark, but it was read well by Martínez and he smothered the ball. Curtis adds an important element to the midfield and I hope he gets some more minutes going forward.

Dom Szoboszlai

I am of two minds on Dom’s performance. That pass he played forward to Darwin was perfect. Emiliano Martínez was deleted and if Darwin simply puts that ball on target, it’s a goal. In that particular instance, Dom processed quickly while attacking and made a great choice. However he won very few duels (2 of 7), his passing accuracy was wanting (79%), and he was dribbled past a couple times. Ultimately, the thing that sits with me is the pass that easily could have led to the third goal, and it totally offsets his struggles today.

Alexis MacAllister

Macca seems to be at his best when he’s playing passes from within his own end of the pitch. He got the build up started on Trent’s goal, as he played a pass to Trent in space, which allowed the Vice Captain to carry the ball through midfield before playing the ball forward to Salah. The ball ended up back with Trent who scored the goal to draw Liverpool even.

Macca completed 98% of his passes, won 10 of 17 ground duels, and had a combined 8 tackles, interceptions and clearances.

Trent Alexander-Arnold

Trent looked fully switched on today after a rough outing against Wolves. Around the 26’ mark, he won two duels in the attacking third that ultimately led to a Robbo cross that Mo headed out of bounds.

He obviously scored the equalizer that earned the Reds a point, had 4 key passes, and was accurate on 5 of 9 long passes.

Andy Robertson

Robbo is another player who had a rough go of it against Wolves, often seeing attackers easily slip behind him when defending in his own end, but he seemed to be effective in both ends today, whether attacking open space or defending the wide areas in his end of the pitch. While his stats don’t necessarily pop, he was noticeable in making a contribution at both ends of the pitch.