The Curious Case of Darwin Nunez
Can the darling of Anfield find his finishing boots?
Photo credit: Fity.club
There isn’t a more polarizing member of the top of the table Reds (which table? all of ‘em, mate) than Darwin Gabriel Núñez. The player once described by opposing fans as “just a shit Andy Carroll” has no shortage of goodwill from the Liverpool FC faithful, due in large part to his passion and general inability to control his emotions. When Liverpool won some second-rate trophy last season, do you remember what it meant to an injured Darwin? Our guy was hurdling fools (erm that was actually Curtis Jones) on his way to celebrate a Carabao Cup win.
We love him because he loves our club just like we do.
But Darwin also frustrates us so very, very much. We be like Golum trying to point to a moment or shiny stat that helps us reclaim our precious, which in this case is the ability to express our unbridled love for Darwin whilst the critics have been temporarily silenced. This season has been slim pickings though, as, through Premier League and Champions League play, Núñez has only contributed 3 goals and 1 assist. On the one hand, it’s fairly easy to waive away his lack of production given Liverpool FC’s incredible run of form; but on the other, you suspect you’re going to need more production from your #9 if you aim to win the biggest trophies the sport has to offer.
What Does Arne Slot Want?
Further complicating matters for our dear Darwin, we can look at Arne Slot’s use of his two primary center forwards: Diogo Jota and Darwin. At the start of the season, when Slot could have started either, he showed a clear preference. Let’s look at the data:
Source: FBRef
Looking at the run of Premier League and Champions League games before Jota was knocked out of the lineup, it’s clear Slot preferred to give the lion’s share of his minutes to Jota. The Champions League tie against Bologna was the only game where Slot has his choice of the two and selected Darwin. Jota started the Chelsea tie but was knocked out of the match at 29’. So it’s indisputable that when given the choice, Slot prefers to use Jota.
Be that as it may, Diogo’s injury history added yet another entry in that Chelsea match, and our man Darwin has been given plenty of run in his absence. If Darwin was going to prove himself to his gaffer, here was his chance. Through the Girona match, he’s been given 72% of the minutes available over a 10 game stretch. How has that gone? Two words: frustration city. While Mo and Lucho have been carrying the mail, Darwin cannot get out of first gear. Let’s use expected goals as this is going to be the most forgiving stat for Núñez, and let’s all agree that he’s been a bit unlucky as of late.
First, let’s look at expected goals across the Premier League season:
Note: limited to those with xG >= 2
Now, let’s take a look at how wasteful each player has been with the goal-scoring chances they’ve been provided:
Across the Premier League, Darwin’s stats don’t look so bad. Sure, he hasn’t scored as many goals as any of us would like, but he certainly hasn’t been wasteful with his chances. His xG is 2.1 and he’s scored 2 goals. Of course we’d like to see a higher xG, but that’s surely the case for everyone not named Mo Salah. Lucho has been particularly impressive, making something out of nothing by scoring 5 goals off an xG of 3. Jota has been the most wasteful, for whatever that’s worth.
Now, let’s take a look at the same data for the Champions League.
Note: limited to those with xG >= 2
Things are looking pretty nice for our boy Darwin, yeah? This is what you want to see from a proper striker: generating xG that’s not miles off the Egyptian King. Now let’s see how wasteful he’s been with those scoring chances:
What can you say?
If Darwin could have converted just one more scoring chance during Champions League play, he’d be back in Mo Salah territory as far as being reasonably efficient with his scoring chances. After the Girona match, Arne Slot commented on how he kept Darwin on the pitch in an effort to get him a goal.
What Does the Future Hold?
Reports suggest Diogo Jota will return to the first team in short order. We already know based on the minutes distribution at the start of the season that Slot prefers to use Diogo in that center forward role. Darwin had his shot over the past 10 games to make the case for himself, but unfortunately he hasn’t made it obvious that he should be the nailed on starter. He’s nowhere near as bad as his critics suggest, and he’s probably unlucky to have not scored one more goal during Champions League play. If he had, you could comfortably say he’s performed as well as the advanced stats would expect. He’s not Mo Salah, and it’s fair to expect more based on the cost to acquire him, but he’s not miles off what the advanced stats say we should expect from him.
Photo credit: Talk Sport
Once Diogo returns, I suspect Darwin will be used as a ‘super sub’. He’s more than earned the name CHAOS AGENT and being brought on in the final 30 or so minutes of a match will be fitting. If Liverpool continue on their impressive run of form he will be entering the match with the opposition chasing the game, which may be the perfect time for him to get behind an aggressive backline and ask questions of the opposing goalkeeper.