Pay that Man his Money?

Will Liverpool FC lose world class players on 'a free'?

NOTE: I’m the last person who is going to have any BREAKING NEWS on contracts. That’s not what this post is all about. It’s more a read on what the proper LFC ‘journalists’ are offering on the state of contract talks as of this particular point in time and my viewpoint on what I think will likely happen. Whenever I see an Instagram post on a Liverpool player with the words BREAKING or UPDATE, I aggressively scroll past it, considering it the worst form of click bait. THERE WILL BE NO BREAKING NEWS OR UPDATES HERE.

So with that out of the way, let’s get to reading some tea leaves, shall we?

As you may have heard, Liverpool FC have three fairly important players who are in the final year of their contracts and could very well leave the club after this season, and FSG would get absolutely nothing in return other than perhaps a firm handshake goodbye. This isn’t how football clubs tend to be managed, particularly those clubs who view themselves as hothouses where they develop young, precocious talent before selling it off to teams with hopes and dreams of playing big-boy football. Think of it in terms of the gold rush: are you in the business of digging for gold and glory, or are you in the business of selling pick axes and sieves?

The players in question are all world class: Mohammed Salah is being compared to Thierry Henry as one of the best forwards to ever play in the Premier League; Virgil van Dijk is considered one of the best center halves to ever play the game; and Trent Alexander-Arnold is very much in the conversation as one of the best right backs in the world. To be blunt, this is less than ideal. In an ideal world all three players would have been signed to new contracts last season. Do we remember what happened last season? If not, here’s a quick refresher:

With this being the case, I’m fine with each player taking his time in order to get a feel for the new manager before agreeing to a new contract. Jürgen Klopp has been compared to Bill Shankly, the larger than life manager who kick started Liverpool’s dominant run from the 1970s through the 1980s. So at the beginning of this season when there was little being reported by journalists who cover the team, the lack of updates made sense to me. Let the players get a feel for the new manager and then decide whether they want to continue playing on Merseyside. Fair play.

Now that we’re nearly 3 months into the season, we seem to be getting some clarity on the contract status for two of the players. Virgil van Dijk and Mo Salah both seem to be amenable to new contracts with the club. They’ve had a chance to be coached by Arne Slot, they almost certainly like the results on the pitch, and there has been reporting to suggest they are close if not fully ready to renew their commitment to the club.

Well then, what’s the catch?

When Jürgen Klopp was still heavily involved in personnel decisions, he seemed to have a soft spot for guys who won the club trophies, which to be fair is a quite common condition for managers. FSG, on the other hand, are full of data wonks who have loads of data that indicate the vast majority of players see their play fall off once they hit the wrong side of 30 years old. So the suggestion seems to be that the sticking point for negotiations with Mo and Virgil is on the length of the contract: FSG wants short-term deals given what the data indicates, while both player’s agents are likely pushing for longer-team deals.

One complicating factor here is that there has been nothing officially leaked as far as what each side is pursuing. The general sense is the club would like to sign Mo and Virg to 1-year deals while the players’ representatives are pushing for 3-year deals. Assuming this is the case - which again, is dicey given we have no concrete details - what do I think the club should do?

The short answer is I would be inclined to meet the players more than halfway if what we are debating is whether they should receive one or three year deals. While I fully support the data that indicates most players see their productivity drop off considerably once they pass age 30, it’s clear both Virgil and Mohammed are elite players, and my ‘vibes’ take is that elite players tend to age more gracefully than merely good players, let alone replacement level players.

Case in point: Mo Salah has generated 10 goals and 10 assists over 17 games. He is 97th percentile or above for all key goal scoring and assist generating stats. He takes his fitness seriously. If you are inclined to take a chance on anyone this late in their career, Salah is your guy.

With van Dijk, the stats tell the story. Sure, we can expect his play to fall off at some point, but this season he’s still contributing to clean sheets, winning aerial duels, generating clearances, and isn’t getting dribbled past at levels that are firmly elite.

Credit: Footy Stats

You’ll have to take my word on this, but as Liverpool FC began to retool their forward and midfield under Klopp, I was fully ready to move on from players like Sadio Mané, Bobby Firmino and Jordan Henderson - all club legends who had enormous fan support. I don’t want to follow a side that is largely past its best by date, even a squad which won LFC its first Premier League title and a Champions League trophy to boot. Fabinho? Gini? Love ya mates, but Father Time is undefeated.

So if that’s the case, why do I support deals for Virgil and Mo that may end up being a year or two too long? In simple terms, they are special. They are the elite of the elite, and my general sense is elite players can hold off Father Time better than others. Not forever, obviously, but long enough where I would be comfortable signing them to deals that defy the data.

Also, as the club gets younger, there is a benefit to having an older player or two who can serve as mentors. Now ideally, you want your mentors to be on the cheaper end, like say James Milner, but Virgil and Mo would be pretty great in mentorship roles if it comes to that.

So my hope is the team will do what it takes to get Virgil and Mo signed to new deals, ideally for two years apiece but if they are holding out for three year deals I’d accept that the final year may be pure charity towards the players and a fan base who have filled Anfield, paid to watch pay-per-view games, and purchased scarves and kits. I don’t think that will be the case, but I am willing to acknowledge it could be the eventual outcome.

And what about Trent Alexander-Arnold? I am much more skeptical that a deal will get done for Trent. Here are the reasons why I expect the club to lose him on a free.

The first is radio silence. In the case of Virgil and Mo, they have been willing to address the media and indicate their interest in renewing their commitments to the club. Salah, in particular, seems to regularly take to social media to proclaim his joy in playing for the club, and some have interpreted this as his way to drive public opinion to his side. While the data guys inside FSG may not have any concern for public opinion, there are likely people within the club who pay attention to such things and understand the backlash that may arise if both players are providing world class play for other clubs next season and beyond.

Photo credit: Talk Sport

However with Trent it’s been...crickets. On social media he will comment on the games, but there isn’t much beyond that. He certainly isn’t trying to negotiate with the club through the court of public opinion. Not that he needs to do so, but the complete disinterest stands in stark contract to Salah. So I tend to take that as a sign he’s not keen to get a deal done soon, if at all.

The second is the comments he’s made about winning trophies as he enters the prime of his career. He’s proclaimed that winning trophies means more to a club like Liverpool FC than it does to Man City. With that being said, I do suspect routinely losing out on trophies to a team like City doesn’t sit well with him and my sense is he perhaps has a ‘if you can’t beat them, join them’ mentality. Here’s the relevant quote:

“It’s difficult,” the Liverpool star told FourFourTwo. “You’re up against a machine that’s built to win – that’s the simplest way to describe City and their organisation.

Of course I don’t expect him to go to Manchester, but if winning trophies is what motivates Trent above all else, it makes sense that he’d go to Real Madrid on a free. First off, there is all the smoke that suggests that’s where he will play next season. Secondly, and most importantly, Madrid has a super team which can compete on more or less equal footing with City. Real have restocked their roster with superstars in the primes of their careers: Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé, Jude Bellingham, and in this scenario, Trent Alexander-Arnold.

Obviously the Galácticos policy didn’t work for Paris Saint-Germain, but Lionel Messi and Neymar were no longer in their prime when that super team was assembled. This current Galácticos Real is pursuing contains elite players in the prime of their careers. Madrid previously acquired 24 year old Vinícius, paid €103 million for 19 year old Jude Bellingham, and in this scenario in addition to 25 year old Mbappé would get 26 year old Trent for nothing. That would provide the Spanish club with a four year window where they would be the odds on favorite to win the Champions League each season. So if Trent is going to measure the success of his career by the number of trophies he’s won, it’s understandable why he’d choose to move to Madrid this summer.

Now there’s a case to be made for Liverpool FC. Virgil hopefully has a few more years with the club and after that point Trent would be a natural as the next captain, but Trent seems to have distanced himself from his previous comments on his great desire to captain the Reds. The club is also currently sitting atop both the Premier League and Champions League tables, so there is a real case to be made that the club could springboard onto greater success with Jürgen Klopp having re-established the club as a European giant. But if we believe football matches are won by the team who has the better players - and all the data suggests that teams who spend the most, win the most - then it would make sense for Trent to stake his perceived success of his football career on playing for Real Madrid.

It’s a classic case of going with your head or with your heart, and everything we’ve seen to date suggests to me that Trent is letting his head guide his next move.