LFC Preview: Wolverhampton Wanderers
Reds look to lock in 3 points against Wolves
Photo credit: Football Today
As the emotions from the Merseyside derby and Michael Oliver’s erm rough night begin to simmer down, Liverpool FC must now direct their energy towards banking 3 points for as many matches as possible. As I mentioned after the most recent Bournemouth tie, it’s in Liverpool’s best interest to keep the finish line for this Premier League season at or above 90 points:
It looks like 90 points is going to be table stakes to challenge Liverpool’s claim to the title, as the Reds are currently on pace to put up 92. No other side is currently pacing to hit 80.
After the draw against the Toffees, the Reds currently sit at a 90.25 projected point total based on the games played thus far, so the job on Sunday is quite simple: knock off Wolves and move that projected point total to 91.2, thereby maintaining a pace no other side has proven capable of matching through 24 weeks of play.
Looking a week and a half ahead, so long as we aren’t blessed with Mr. Oliver officiating the City game, it’s reasonable to feel confident about the next three matches. Today we will do what all managers and players implore us to do: focus on the next one, which in this case happens to be against Wolverhampton at Anfield on Sunday.
Wolves currently sit two points above the cut line, but have a much better goal differential than all three sides beneath them in the relegation zone. This is due largely to their offensive quality, as they have scored more goals than 7 other sides in the PL and have generated as many as 8th place Aston Villa. That’s the good news; the bad news is they are third-worst in the Prem for goals conceded, having allowed 52 goals to date.
The expected goals data doesn’t match Wolverhampton’s reality in the slightest, and we’ll go over that shortly, but here’s how the advanced stats data looks at a high level:
Credit: FBRef
It was being truly terrible at keeping the ball out of their own net that cost Gary O’Neil his job as Wolves manager, and the inclination would be to give new gaffer Vítor Pereira credit for the improved goal prevention. We’ll go over this in detail in the defensive section.
Being so close to relegation, it should come as no surprise Wolves have had a poor run of form lately, but they did take all three points off Villa at the beginning of the month, and the xG data fully supports that outcome. They also beat Blackburn pretty convincingly in FA Cup play recently, for whatever that’s worth, although the Rovers were denied an early goal on a questionable offside call.
Wolves have moved from 4 in the back with two center halves, to 3 central defenders, and have consistently been a 3-4-3 team under Pereira, going with a 3-4-2-1 against Chelsea recently. Their possession numbers are all over the place, from a low of 23% against City in a 1-2 loss back on October 20th, to a high of 60% against Forest (not surprising) and Bournemouth (intriguing). In that later tie, the Cherries raced out to a 1-3 lead inside of 20 minutes, and were content to cede possession to Wolves and counter when the opportunity presented itself.
Bournemouth vs Wolverhampton Momentum Chart
Source: Sofa Score
When facing teams with attacking quality like Liverpool (Chelsea, Newcastle), the possession numbers are close to 40%, and in the first match at Molineux, Wolves had the ball for 45% of the match.
So Wolves are all over the place this season, fielding a better offense than expected, much worse defensive play than expected when coached by their former gaffer, and a new manager bounce that has them playing closer to what the expected goals data suggests. Let’s dive in and take a look.
The Underlying Numbers - Offense
Photo credit: London Insider
As mentioned above, Wolves is a team where their actual production is nowhere near what the advanced data suggests. In short, they score much more than what is expected and have conceded far more goals that what would be expected.
Here’s the goals versus expected goals data for the season to date:
PL Goals Minus Expected Goals Delta
Source: FBRef
The teams with the biggest positive delta are an interesting collection: Forest relies on a very in-form and efficient striker in Chris Wood; Arsenal has mostly been content to get a lead and then sit back to protect the lead, but have had recent outbursts like the match against City; and of course there’s Ange ball, where Spurs prefer to always be on the front foot in attack mode.
Most of this excess scoring for the Wanderers has come in the form of Matheus Cunha, who has 11 goals off an xG of 5.2. Cunha is very good at targeting shots on goal (84th percentile) and is elite at getting those shots into the back of the net.
Credit: Dan Kennett on Bluesky
His expected goals data is pretty mid at 58th percentile, but his actual production is off the charts, as he’s 95th percentile for non-penalty goals scored per 90 minutes.
This season may be an outlier for Cunha, but he’s just entering his prime and with 5,000 minutes over the past 3 seasons at Wolves, his Goals - xG has improved each season. He’s Wolves’ most in-form scorer and if they are to threaten the Reds, odds are pretty good he’ll be the source of said threat, as Wolverhampton’s top two options at striker have been ruled out for this tie.
The other significant source of the increased scoring above the xG data is Rayan Aït-Nouri, as the wing back has scored 3 goals off an xG of 1.6. He’s Robbo-like, with elite npxG, assist, pass completion, and take-on data. In addition to his 3 goals, he has generated 5 assists; his expected assists sits at 2.3. So Cunha and Ait-Nouri are the stars of the Wolves attack.
Aït-Nouri is in the top 5 in the PL for assists above expected assists (Source: FBRef)
With both strikers out of commission, it is expected that Goncalo Guedes will fill that #9 spot. While Guedes only has 700 minutes of play thus far, his Assists above Expected Assists would rank in the top 5 in the league at +3.0, so he’s someone to keep an eye on in this match.
All that said, when facing top sides, Wolves never score first and are often clean sheeted, getting shut out by Arsenal, Newcastle, and Forest since the start of the new year. The only time all year where they have drawn first blood against a team ranked in the top 5 of the league was against City back on October 20th.
Their attack doesn’t seem to be varied enough to ask questions of top defensive sides.
The Underlying Numbers - Defense
Photo credit: Redfellas.org
Source: FBRef
Wolves have conceded so many more goals (52) than what the xGA to date suggests (39.4). That’s nearly 13 more goals than xGA over the past 24 weeks, but the goals conceded is starting to more closely follow the expected goals data.
The tie against Chelsea in Matchweek 2 truly stands out as far as highlighting the disparity of the data, as Wolves surrendered 6 goals off an xG of 1.6! That event alone accounts for 1/3 of the goals above xGA, and no other side has come close to Wolves in conceding as many goals above what the xGA data suggests.
Since the coaching change, however, Wolverhampton has generated 3 clean sheets under Pereira, which is a big improvement on the 1 they secured in the previous 16 weeks under O’Neil, which was against nailed on relegation fodder Southampton. The goals conceded is consistently mirroring the xGA conceded data since Pereira took over, so that’s a pretty clear sign the defensive structure has improved markedly due to the coaching change.
Wolves defensive performance over last 7 PL ties
Credit: FBRef
For the 7 games highlighted above, Wolverhampton has an 11.3 xGA vs 12 goals conceded. That’s clear improvement.
In the Chelsea tie, Wolves employed a mid block, with some targeted high pressing, for instance just before halftime when they were down a goal. Liverpool should be able to make good use of Trent and Dom if this is how Wolves decide to defend the Reds.
Credit: Billy Carpenter on Bluesky
Chelsea used the first tactic outlined above, and this is a tactic that can be used quite effectively with Trent. Mo and Dom can be used quite effectively on the right flank for the third tactic.
Where Chelsea had the most success was with dead ball passes. Two of their three goals came from set pieces:
The first goal was the result of a fortuitous bounce on a corner kick that led to Tosin Adarabioyo’s goal. It was originally waived off as being offside, but a Wolves defender was slow in moving up to put Adarabioyo offside, so VAR confirmed it was a good goal.
The third goal was delivered via a Cole Palmer free kick that, while it wasn’t a corner kick, was pretty close to where corner kicks are taken. He placed the ball at the far post, and it was played back towards the near post, where it was headed in by Noni Madueke.
Against Newcastle, it was shocking how easily the Magpies got Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon into prime scoring areas in front of Wolves’ goal totally unmarked. Having a quality distributor set up near the penalty arc (Bruno G) combined with quick passing got them an Isak goal from in close. Isak set up Gordon’s goal when Wolves over reacted to him on the right flank and this feels like something Mo Salah is fully capable of exploiting as a set up man.
José Sá has been the primary keeper for Wolves, with Sam Johnstone taking over between the sticks when Sá struggled at the start of the season, conceding 8 goals to Chelsea and Arsenal on 14 shots on target. With nearly 2/3 of a season’s worth of data, Sá is clearly the better of the two in advanced stats like PSxG-GA (47th percentile) and PSxG/SoT (62nd percentile), and gets roughly 2/3 of the starts. Both goalies have games where their save percentage and their PSxG-GA is poor, hence the rotation between the sticks.
If Liverpool can pepper the Wolves keeper with shots, it’s hard to see either of them keeping Wolves in this tie. Liverpool generates the most shots on target in league play, averaging 6.46 per game. Wolves are 6th in the league at blocking shots, so this may require brute force as far as shot volume goes.
Johnson’s season high for shots faced that were on target was 12 against Brentford back on October 5th, and he conceded 5 goals in that tie. For Sá, his season high is 9 shots against Brighton and he conceded 3 goals.
Neither keeper for Wolverhampton is expected to stand on his head against the Reds. Generate xG and shots on target and Liverpool should profit.
What’s Going to Happen?
Arne Slot has commented on the positives his side should take away from the Merseyside derby. You would fully expect the Reds to have steel in their spine after what they experienced on Wednesday night, and if that’s the case, Wolves are going to be in for a long one.
The Wanderers of Wolverhampton have some intriguing offensive talent, but they have been contained when facing the top defensive sides in the Prem. Liverpool is right up there with the best of them, so a clean sheet should be the expectation for the Reds.
On offense, the Liverpool FC attack is diverse enough to ask questions of Wolves to the tune of the 2+ xG put up by sides like Spurs, Chelsea and Newcastle recently. If that’s the case it’s hard to see Wolves scoring enough to split the points, let alone take all three points off Liverpool.
UTFR!