LFC Preview: Aston Villa
Reds continue their push for a 90 point season
Photo credit: The Anfield Wrap
Liverpool FC are thoroughly in the muck, having played two games over the last 5 days, with 3 games on the horizon over the next 9 days. Aston Villa, it’s worth pointing out, is in a similar predicament, with one fewer day of rest before facing Palace on the 25th.
Arne Slot’s charges are currently on pace to finish the season with 91 points, so the goal at this point is to maintain the pace they’ve set over the past 25 weeks.
Maintain the pace they’ve established since Matchweek 1, and it would require perfection - 13 straight wins - for Goonerz to catch them. Claim all three points off Villa, and it would push LFC’s expected point total to 92, which would be the maximum point total Arsenal can achieve, with the Reds crucially having a +7 goal differential as the tie-breaker.
So the goal is straightforward: take all three points off Villa, thereby maintaining a pace Arsenal will struggle to reach before the finish line.
To that end, today we focus on the next opponent: Villa at Villa Park.
Aston Villa Form
The Lions have been in a poor run of form, having 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss over their past 5 matches; however those ties include drawing Arsenal at Emirates and beating the resurgent Toffees at Goodison Park. Their most impressive win this season was a 2-1 result against City at home on December 21st.
Against the top 5 sides in the Prem, they have a combined record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses, but the Lions have been competitive in every tie:
Possession, GA and xGA are Villa’s in each tie (Credit: FBRef )
Aston Villa rarely hold an opponent beneath the xGA they concede, but the highest number of goals they’ve allowed to the best teams in the PL has been 2. Limiting City and Bournemouth to one goal is impressive work from Unai Emery’s charges.
Next, let’s take a look at the high level advanced stats for the Villans:
Source: FBRef
For the season to date, Villa is 5th in the table for limiting xGA, conceding on average 1.21 xGA per 90 minutes. The xGA data flatters them, and we’ll go over that in a bit. When it comes to their attack, the Lions are exquisitely mid: the xG data for the season to date places Villa 9th, sandwiched between Fulham one spot beneath them and Arsenal one spot above them. They average 1.46 xG per 90 minutes, and against the top 5 sides in the Prem they have generated 6 goals off a combined xG of 7.2 over 6 ties.
The Lions play a cookie-cutter 4-2-3-1 favored by most PL sides, including Arne Slot’s Liverpool. The Villans are going through an injury crisis, with 3 defenders who have played a combined 56 matches this season being unlikely or questionable for Wednesday’s tie:
Tyrone Mings, himself coming back from injury, will likely be paired with Chelsea loanee Axel Disasi on Wednesday night, as Pau Torres and Matty Cash also remain sidelined.
Mings and Axel Disai have played a combined 8 matches thus far this season, so this will be something to keep an eye on. Emery sounds quite pleased about the return of Mings:
Credit: Jacob Transwell on Bluesky
Mings stands out primarily as an attacking threat, with his Shot-Creating Actions, Progressive Passes and Touches in the Attacking Penalty Area all being at or near 80th percentile. Getting him back is good news for the Villans. It looks like Boubacar Kamara will be out for a few weeks, which is a major blow.
The Lions, however, have bolstered their attack through the acquisition of Marcus Rashford and Marco Ascensio during the most recent transfer window. They may also see the return of Leon Bailey from injury.
The Underlying Numbers - Defense
Photo credit: Dynamo Kiev
The Lions currently sit in 9th place on the PL table above the likes of Spurs and Man U through being consistently average in many advanced stats. Here’s where they rank for many defensive metrics:
Tackles in Attacking 3rd: 14th
Percentage of Dribblers Tackled: 1st
Shots Blocked: 17th
Tackles + Interceptions: 16th
Clearances: 14th
The Villans are solid at nearly everything, which reflects well on Emery, who’s had loads of success with sides across Europe, qualifying for and advancing far in European tournaments, with three of his side’s defeat coming at the hands of eventual tournament champions.
Like Wolves from the last preview, the Lions concede more goals than what would be expected based on the advanced stats. Part of that is due to only three clean sheets this season, coming against Man U, Southampton, and Everton as David Moyes was being brought back to revitalize the Toffees. The three teams currently in the relegation zone are the only sides with fewer clean sheets than Villa.
However the Lions have been run off the pitch only once, a 4-1 defeat to Spurs back on November 3rd, where they conceded a 2.4 xGA. Beyond that, they have only conceded 3 goals twice, to Newcastle and Chelsea. So it’s more death by a thousand paper cuts than just flesh wound, with the quintessential example of the latter being Wolves conceding 6 goals to Chelsea early in the season off an xGA of 1.6.
Credit: Monty Python and the Holy Grail
Aston Villa’s Leaky Bucket
Negative numbers are what we seek here (Source: FBRef)
Villa is second to Wolves in the delta for how many more goals are conceded compared to the expected goals against total. The Villans consistently concede more goals than what the xGA suggests: not massively over one or two ties, but it’s a leaky bucket that is consistent from match to match, with the end result being that the xGA data flatters them much like Wolves. These are entirely different situations, though, given Wolverhampton needed to make a coaching change given their horrific number of goals conceded under Gary O’Neil: Wolves have already conceded 16 more goals this season than Aston Villa.
Continuing the Villa-Wolves connection, in a recent tie against Wolves earlier this month, Villa had most of the ball, with close to 70% possession, but the Wanderers were able to effectively counter, generating a half dozen dangerous runs on their way to a 2-0 win with a 1.63 xGA. This is a recent example of how Villa consistently allows a higher goal total than what the xGA suggests.
It also highlights how hitting Villa on the counter is effective as it doesn’t allow them to set their defensive shape.
Photo credit: Rionegro.com.ar
Keeper Emiliano Martínez has put up solid advanced stats, as he’s 75th percentile in PSxG-GA but the quality of shots he’s facing are very high, as he’s 92nd percentile in PSxG/SoT. Due to that shot quality, his save percentage has dropped to 63.6%, which places him in the bottom 33rd percentile. This is his worst save percentage since he played 4 games for Arsenal back in 2015 as a 21 year old.
Villa’s Shots on Target conceded & Martínez’s save percentage while at Aston Villa (Credit: FBRef)
Martínez’s best season with Villa was in 2020-21, as he faced his highest shots on target combined with his strongest save percentage. This season the Lions allow nearly 1 fewer shot per tie, but Martínez’s save percentage has plummeted by nearly 15 percentage points. This is primarily due to the PSxG/SoT which indicates he’s facing higher quality shots on target.
Higher numbers = tougher shots (Source: FBRef)
With the recent injury crisis on defense combined with the quality of shots the Villans are conceding, the Lions are unlikely to be in a position to contain a Liverpool side that still leads the league in xG, despite two modest performances against Everton and Wolves.
The Underlying Numbers - Offense
Photo credit: Rousing the Kop
The Villans’ total number of goals scored is slightly below what the xG data would suggest (-1.6 goals compared to xG, or -0.064 per 90 minutes), meaning they are pretty much converting the chances they generate. When digging into the advanced data, Villa is bang average at nearly everything, which again is a sign of quality coaching:
Passes into the Final Third: 10th
Carries into the Final Third: 10th
Key Passes: 12th
Shot-Creating Actions: 13th
Live-Ball SCA: 13th
Goal-Creating Actions: 12th
Live-Ball GCA: 12th
There are a few areas where the Lions stand out. Firstly, they are short-passing merchants: Aston Villa has attempted the fewest number of 30+ yard passes this season, and are in a group that has less than 1400 long passes which includes Spurs, Arsenal and City. So they fancy a proper build up, and are top 5 in completion percentage for passes between 15 and 30 yards.
Likely due to their preference for building up, they also draw the most fouls in the PL. As a result of drawing so many fouls, they generate the most Shot-Creating Actions from dead balls such as free kicks. This is an area where Liverpool proved vulnerable against Everton, so this is worth keeping in mind.
Finally, Villa is third in the total number of corner kicks taken. Like most of the league, they greatly favor inswinging kicks to outswinging or straight corner kicks, although I’m not sure how much this matters given Liverpool, like Villa, has conceded the fewest goals off corner kicks this season at 1. It’s worth pointing out that when these two sides met at Anfield back in November, the Reds’ first goal came off a counter from a Villa corner kick, and Caoimhín Kelleher made two massive saves off corner kicks to earn the clean sheet. So corner kicks may factor into this tie after all.
Ollie Watkins has been Villa’s primary scoring threat, and there were rumors he would make a move during this recent transfer window before those inquires were rejected. Watkins’ non-penalty goals trails his npxG by 1.7, but his expected and actual assist totals are borderline elite. He’s firmly in his prime and his non-penalty expected goals has grown over each of the past three seasons:
With Jhon Durán making a move to the Saudi Pro League, the Villans currently have two players who are generating goal totals above what the xG would suggest. Those players are Morgan Rogers and Ross Barkley, who have generated a combined 9 goals off an xG of 6.3. Barkley appears to be recovering from injury so his availability is doubtful.
With the addition of Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio, Villa will hope to bolster an attack that has scored 7 goals in 6 PL ties in 2025. Both are seeking a fresh start after limited playing time with their previous clubs. Rashford’s advanced stats are terrible, but it’s probably wise to factor in what a shambles Man U has become, and then have yourself a proper belly laugh.
With Asensio, his passing and assist data are elite, but he played very little football for a dominant side at PSG over the past two seasons. Up to this point he’s played 28 minutes for Villa and has been credited with 4 shot creating actions, which is very impressive, but those minutes came against an Ipswich side playing with 10 men.
Villa is capable when on the attack, scoring 2 goals against Arsenal last month from an xG of 1.0, but their attack has been wanting over the last 3 ties against some of the weaker sides in the PL, generating 2 goals over that stretch, with one of those ties against the Tractor Boys who were forced to play with 10 men for 50 minutes.
What’s Going to Happen?
Photo credit: Tribuna.com
The big question from Liverpool’s perspective is what to make of the final 30 minutes of the Wolves tie, where the Reds white knuckled it while holding onto a 1 goal lead? Was this simply a hangover from the Merseyside derby? Did the Reds underestimate Wolverhampton after a fairly easy first half that staked them to a 2-goal lead?
Whatever the answer, a more even performance on the road at Villa Park would re-establish momentum and rebuild the confidence that has surrounded the side for much of the season to date.
The Reds continued their rotation at center forward against Wolves, with Diogo Jota filling the center forward role he owned at the start of the season. With Cody Gakpo’s return still out of the question, it seems there’s a good chance Lucho will stay on the left flank, where he was Liverpool’s best forward on Sunday. Does Jota get another start against Villa, or will Darwin join the Starting XI? Or will Slot throw another curve ball and do something like put Darwin on the left flank and return Díaz to his false 9 role?
The Villans are a well coached side, which is reflected in the advanced stats and the product on the pitch. Their undoing has mostly come from giving up high quality chances - often via a counter - that result in more goals allowed than what the xGA would suggest. They also struggle to generate consistent scoring chances and in turn goals.
Given this tie is at Villa Park, I think there’s a decent chance of a draw. This is due mostly to Villa rarely concedes more than 2 goals and the recent underwhelming form LFC has displayed over the last two ties. It seems the best scoring chances come when you can hit Villa on the counter, and the Reds have been hit or miss with countering, due largely to the desire to hold onto the ball.
Source: Opta Analyst on Bluesky
The Reds have had a lot of success against Emery, but I’m not sure how much stock to place into those previous matches, particularly since many were from sides managed by Jürgen Klopp. With that being said, given the uncertainty with the Villans’ back line, this seems like a good opportunity for the Reds to get back on track and generate strong xG after two weak outings over the past two ties.
If the Reds are able to score 2 goals as they did in their last two ties off a combined xG of 2.3 against Everton and Wolves, they should be in good shape for taking all 3 points.
UTR!